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Annapolis, MD – The Commission’s Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board reviewed the results of the 2024 Atlantic Striped Bass Stock Assessment Update, which indicates the resource is not experiencing overfishing but remains overfished relative to the updated biological reference points. Female spawning stock biomass (SSB) in 2023 was estimated at 191 million pounds, which is below the SSB threshold of 197 million pounds and below the SSB target of 247 million pounds. Total fishing mortality in 2023 was estimated at 0.18, which is below the fishing mortality threshold of 0.21 and above the fishing mortality target of 0.17. The 2024 Assessment Update included data through 2023 and used the same model from the approved peer-reviewed 2018 Benchmark Stock Assessment. The model structure was the same as the 2022 Stock Assessment Update, which accounted for the period of low recruitment the stock is experiencing and for new management changes starting in 2020.
The Board continued to express concerns about low recruitment and the lack of strong year-classes to support the stock and the fishery. Six of the last seven year-classes since 2015 have been below average, with only the 2018 year-class being above average. The 2018 year-class is starting to grow into the slot limit for the ocean recreational fishery and will become more available to ocean harvest in 2025.
The 2024 Assessment Update also included short-term projections to determine the probability of SSB being at or above the SSB target by 2029, which is the stock rebuilding deadline. The model structure for projections from 2024-forward was modified to explicitly account for the narrower slot limits implemented in 2023 and 2024. A range of projection scenarios were considered to explore two primary sources of uncertainty for the rebuilding trajectory through 2029: the level of fishery removals for the current, in-progress 2024 fishing year and the fishing mortality rate from 2025 through 2029.
Based on these projections, the Board will hold a special Board meeting in December 2024 to consider Board action to change 2025 management measures to reduce fishing mortality and increase the probability of rebuilding to at least 50%. Under Addendum II to Amendment 7, the Board can change management measures through Board action, instead of developing an addendum, if the stock assessment indicates a less than 50% probability of the stock rebuilding by 2029. Ahead of the December meeting, the Board tasked the Technical Committee with updating the projections based on additional 2024 catch data and developing recreational size limit and seasonal closure management options for consideration.
A subsequent press release will provide details on the meeting date and format (in-person or virtual), and the anticipated timeline for the availability of meeting materials and the public input process (which may differ from the standard public comment timelines to allow for the compilation and summary of public comment in advance of the meeting).
The 2024 Atlantic Striped Bass Stock Assessment Update will be available at https://asmfc.org/species/atlantic-striped-bass under stock assessment reports early next week.
For more information, please contact Emilie Franke, Fishery Management Plan Coordinator, at efranke@asmfc.org or 703.842.0740.